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Lucas RayanandClaude Sonnet 5 c64bbbf775 feat: implement Pillars 2-4 and fix a production false-positive in Pillar 1
Pillar 1 v1.1 (shipped earlier) flagged benign browsing bursts as
beaconing: on short captures, grid periods longer than the observed
span never complete a cycle, so significance saturates to 1 and the
score sticks at exactly 0.5. v1.2 caps the grid at a third of the
observed span, requires a minimum number of completed cycles, and
excludes protocols that are periodic by nature (NTP, DNS, mDNS,
ICMP). Validated against 300 seeds per scenario: false positives on
bursty traffic drop from the 290-300/300 that v1.1 produced to 0/300,
with every beacon-detection scenario scoring unchanged.

Add Pillar 2 (persistent/long-lived sessions, with Zeek's fragmented
TCP sessions rejoined after a 5-minute gap), Pillar 3 (DNS tunneling
via Shannon-entropy information volume per subdomain per hour; the
Jensen-Shannon divergence was measured and does not separate tunnels
from benign CDN subdomains, so it stays in the evidence at zero
weight instead of in the score), and Pillar 4 (deterministic
noisy-OR fusion across the three pillars).

The fusion formula was validated against 8 labeled real-traffic
vectors (IoT-23, CTU-Normal) with tolerance <= 1e-4. A known
limitation is kept, not hidden: a benign Philips HUE bulb's strict
periodic polling and a 21.9h session score it above three real C2
hosts. No weight or threshold was tuned to mask this; it is
documented in the architecture docs instead.

Also fixes real bugs found along the way: ingest_dir's partition
count summed file names instead of distinct dates, DuckDB errors
were counted as bad rows, /api/alerts always returned an empty list
regardless of the last analysis, and the dashboard still claimed
every pillar was unimplemented.

Restores four design corrections that were missing from
docs/architecture.md (KL to Jensen-Shannon, the persistent-session
detector, the JA4 licensing boundary, and deterministic reduction
order), and catalogs the public datasets used for validation
(IoT-23, CTU-Normal, Mendeley DTQBC) with their licenses and SHA-256
checksums under research/validation/.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VAyr8d7HuAdUGB6aA5xmDD
2026-11-01 00:28:54 -03:00

52 lines
1.8 KiB
Python

# Pillar 1: v1.1 (implemented) vs v1.2 (proposed) on synthetic scenarios, 300 seeds each.
import math, random, statistics, sys
GRID = [600 * 72 ** (j / 199) for j in range(200)]
TWO_PI = 2 * math.pi
def qcont(xs, q):
xs = sorted(xs); h = (len(xs) - 1) * q; lo = math.floor(h); hi = math.ceil(h)
return xs[lo] + (h - lo) * (xs[hi] - xs[lo])
def core(ts, grid):
t0 = ts[0]; n = len(ts); Ps = []
for p in grid:
f = 1 / p; c = s = 0.0
for t in ts:
ph = TWO_PI * f * (t - t0); c += math.cos(ph); s += math.sin(ph)
Ps.append((c * c + s * s) / n)
return Ps
def disp(ts):
d = [b - a for a, b in zip(ts, ts[1:])]
med = qcont(d, .5)
if med <= 1e-9: return None, med
madm = qcont([abs(x - med) for x in d], .5)
return madm / med, med
def v11(ts):
ts = sorted(ts)
if len(ts) < 20: return 0.0, 'insufficient_data', None
Ps = core(ts, GRID); pmax = max(Ps)
sig = min(1, max(0, (pmax - math.log(200)) / (6 * math.log(10))))
dn, med = disp(ts)
if dn is None: return 0.5 * sig, 'degenerate_deltas', None
reg = min(1, max(0, 1 - 2 * dn))
per = max(p for p, v in zip(GRID, Ps) if v >= .5 * pmax)
return 0.5 * sig + 0.5 * reg, 'ok', per
def v12(ts, cycles=3, gate=0.25):
ts = sorted(ts)
if len(ts) < 20: return 0.0, 'insufficient_data', None
span = ts[-1] - ts[0]
grid = [p for p in GRID if p <= span / cycles]
if not grid: return 0.0, 'insufficient_span', None
Ps = core(ts, grid); pmax = max(Ps); M = len(grid)
sig = min(1, max(0, (pmax - math.log(M)) / (6 * math.log(10))))
dn, med = disp(ts)
if dn is None: return 0.0, 'degenerate_deltas', None
reg = min(1, max(0, 1 - 2 * dn))
g = min(1.0, reg / gate)
per = max(p for p, v in zip(grid, Ps) if v >= .5 * pmax)
return 0.5 * sig * g + 0.5 * reg, 'ok', per