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acaua/research/validation/p3hourly.py
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Lucas RayanandClaude Sonnet 5 c64bbbf775 feat: implement Pillars 2-4 and fix a production false-positive in Pillar 1
Pillar 1 v1.1 (shipped earlier) flagged benign browsing bursts as
beaconing: on short captures, grid periods longer than the observed
span never complete a cycle, so significance saturates to 1 and the
score sticks at exactly 0.5. v1.2 caps the grid at a third of the
observed span, requires a minimum number of completed cycles, and
excludes protocols that are periodic by nature (NTP, DNS, mDNS,
ICMP). Validated against 300 seeds per scenario: false positives on
bursty traffic drop from the 290-300/300 that v1.1 produced to 0/300,
with every beacon-detection scenario scoring unchanged.

Add Pillar 2 (persistent/long-lived sessions, with Zeek's fragmented
TCP sessions rejoined after a 5-minute gap), Pillar 3 (DNS tunneling
via Shannon-entropy information volume per subdomain per hour; the
Jensen-Shannon divergence was measured and does not separate tunnels
from benign CDN subdomains, so it stays in the evidence at zero
weight instead of in the score), and Pillar 4 (deterministic
noisy-OR fusion across the three pillars).

The fusion formula was validated against 8 labeled real-traffic
vectors (IoT-23, CTU-Normal) with tolerance <= 1e-4. A known
limitation is kept, not hidden: a benign Philips HUE bulb's strict
periodic polling and a 21.9h session score it above three real C2
hosts. No weight or threshold was tuned to mask this; it is
documented in the architecture docs instead.

Also fixes real bugs found along the way: ingest_dir's partition
count summed file names instead of distinct dates, DuckDB errors
were counted as bad rows, /api/alerts always returned an empty list
regardless of the last analysis, and the dashboard still claimed
every pillar was unimplemented.

Restores four design corrections that were missing from
docs/architecture.md (KL to Jensen-Shannon, the persistent-session
detector, the JA4 licensing boundary, and deterministic reduction
order), and catalogs the public datasets used for validation
(IoT-23, CTU-Normal, Mendeley DTQBC) with their licenses and SHA-256
checksums under research/validation/.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VAyr8d7HuAdUGB6aA5xmDD
2026-11-01 00:28:54 -03:00

28 lines
1.3 KiB
Python

# Hourly (UTC-aligned) information volume of unique subdomains per (host, base) on real dns.log files.
import sys, os, collections, math, importlib.util
here = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))
sp = importlib.util.spec_from_file_location('p3lib', os.path.join(here, 'p3lib.py')); L = importlib.util.module_from_spec(sp); sp.loader.exec_module(L)
def read(path):
fields = None
for line in open(path, errors='replace'):
line = line.rstrip('\n')
if line.startswith('#fields'): fields = line.split('\t')[1:]; continue
if line.startswith('#') or not line: continue
yield dict(zip(fields, line.split('\t')))
allmax = []
for path in sys.argv[1:]:
b = collections.defaultdict(set)
for r in read(path):
q = r.get('query')
if q in (None, '-', ''): continue
base, sub = L.split(q)
if sub: b[(r['id.orig_h'], base, int(float(r['ts']) // 3600))].add(sub)
best = []
for (h, base, hr), subs in b.items():
cnt = collections.Counter(c for s in subs for c in L.chars(s))
bits = L.H(cnt) * sum(len(L.chars(s)) for s in subs)
best.append((bits, h, base, hr, len(subs)))
best.sort(reverse=True)
print(f"== {path}: (host,base,hour) groups={len(best)}; top3 hourly info bits:")
for x in best[:3]: print(f" bits={x[0]:.0f} host={x[1]} base={x[2]} U={x[4]}")